Whakarāpopototanga mākete / Market Commentary
Market Summary
Markets faced massive headwinds in March, as the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies were felt around the world.
Investor confidence has been rattled as expected tariff announcements raised questions around the outlook for future economic growth in the US (and internationally). US tech shares which tend to be valued on their future growth prospects fell considerably with the Magnificent 7 companies (these are 7 of the biggest tech companies globally – Microsoft, Apple, Tesla etc) underperforming. US Equities bore the brunt of the market’s pushback, with the MSCI US (local currency) down -5.9% over March, while the NASDAQ fell -8.1%.
In New Zealand GDP finally expanded in the last quarter of 2024, up 0.7% (compared to the previous quarters -1.0%), although unemployment data continues to disappoint. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr also abruptly left his role (replaced by Christian Hawkesby). The market is pricing in cuts at the next two meetings.
The New Zealand economy is showing signs of emerging from the downturn and the Business NZ Purchasing Managers’ Index (which provides insight into the state of the economy) is showing improvement. House prices in March were higher, benefiting from the lower interest rates. The NZX50 returned -2.4% in March.
For the three months to 31 March 2025, we saw a mixed bag of results. Our Tōtara-Conservative Fund returned 0.03%, our Mataī-Balanced Fund returned -1.8% and the Rātā-Growth Fund returned -2.8%. For the month of March, the three funds were all negative, whilst broadly behind benchmark.
These returns are net returns after fees and taxes.
Whakaata Haumi / Investment Video
