Whakarāpopototanga mākete / Market Commentary to 31 March 2024
The first quarter of 2024 saw global equities continue their upswing, and in March recorded their longest positive monthly streak since 2021. The S&P 500 had its strongest first quarter since 2019 and outperformed both international and emerging market equities. Technology stocks led the charge, with companies benefiting from the accelerated adoption of digital technologies and artificial intelligence.
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and a major terror attack in Russia continue to pose significant geopolitical risks. Investors remain cautious and closely monitor geopolitical developments, as any escalation could further disrupt global supply chains, capital flows and commodity markets, in particular oil supplies.
New Zealand fell into its second “technical” recession in 18 months, after economic data released in March showed that GDP had shrunk 0.1%. Factors contributing to the recession have included supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, and a slowdown in key sectors such as tourism and hospitality.
As we progress into the rest of 2024, the investment outlook is characterised by a blend of opportunities and challenges across global markets. It is expected that the global economy will avoid a recession, and instead for current growth rates to soften in the coming quarter. Globally, ongoing cooling of the labour markets and slower wage growth gives comfort that inflation is on track to further normalise in 2024, moving closer to central bank inflation targets.
Whakaata Haumi / Investment update video
The Whai Rawa tīma discuss the current market situation.
Hua ahumoni ki Whai Rawa / Whai Rawa Returns as at 31 March 2024
Notes: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Where applicable returns include, and assume the full utilisation of, tax credits. Net returns shown are returns after fees and taxes. The benchmark is the strategic asset allocation weighted benchmark index return, where the benchmark indices (which comprise of market indices and peer group indices) are defined in the Statement of Investment Policy and Objectives (SIPO). The benchmark does not include any deductions for tax but does include deductions for some charges. Where applicable returns include, and assume the full utilisation of, tax credits. Numbers are rounded.
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